Development of a Risk Prediction tool for entering a Nursing Home in those aged 65 and over in a Scottish Population

This project is a SCPHRP seed-funded research project. Seed-funding research was part of the SCPHRP remit during the period of 2008 ’€“ 2012. 


University of Dundee

Principle investigator:

Professor Peter Donnan

Entering a nursing home in later life is associated with enormous impact on the health of an individual, as well as cost consequences for health services. A first step before effective interventions can be developed is to have the ability to identify those who are at greatest risk. A number of mainly US studies have identified illness severity, being female, lack of caregiver support, cognitive disability and previous hospitalisations as key predictors of entering a nursing home. In contrast, there has been little work on predictors in Scotland or the UK where priorities and organisation of health care differ.
Linkage of relevant data in the Health Informatics Centre in Tayside will facilitate the development of a predictive algorithm. Having the ability to predict in advance, those at high risk could lead to early interventions to allow patients to remain in their homes longer with benefit to both patient and the NHS.
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